A needed rain chance arrives in South Central Texas by Tuesday morning

It was a gorgeous end to the weekend in San Antonio with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, but a needed rain and storm chance is headed our direction!

An area of low pressure and corresponding cold front will push through South Central Texas Monday night/Tuesday morning and will spark one of the best chances for rain that we’ve seen so far this year.

Here’s a breakdown of what we’ll be monitoring with this next system:

THE SETUP

  • An area of low pressure approaching the Four Corners region Sunday evening will continue to strengthen as it pushes southeast over the next 36 hours.
  • As this low-pressure system syncs up with additional moisture and pushes into the Lone Star State, rain chances increase locally overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning.
A low pressure system will bring increasing rain chances to South Central Texas overnight Monday into Tuesday.

TIMING

  • The majority of our Monday will be dry. A cold start with lows in the 30s (and a light freeze possible in the Hill Country) is slated to lead in seasonable afternoon highs in the 60s. Monday will also feature a healthy east breeze, with wind gusts upwards of 25 mph+ making for elevated fire danger conditions.
  • As the aforementioned low-pressure system approaches West Texas, showers are expected to develop in our western counties around the 9 p.m. – 11 p.m. time frame Monday night.
  • Rain coverage is then expected to increase and expand farther eastward through the overnight hours on Monday and into at least the first half of the day on Tuesday.
  • Expect a soggy start in spots on Tuesday, so plan on giving yourself some extra time for the morning drive and take the rain gear with you!
  • The rain and storm activity should push east into the afternoon hours, with clearing skies expected from west to east through the remainder of the day. It’ll be pretty windy, too, with gusts upwards of 35 mph+ possible.

RAIN TOTALS

By the time all is said and done, here’s what we could find in terms of totals in area rain gauges:

  • Western Counties (& those closest to the Rio Grande): Up to 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • Central Counties (around San Antonio): 0.50″ – 1.00″+
  • Eastern Counties: 1.00″ – 1.50″+ (localized higher totals possible)

While these exact ranges may need to be adjusted a touch over the next 36 hours, overall the lower rainfall accumulations look to be found in our western counties, and the higher rainfall accumulations in our eastern counties.

Lower totals look to be found the farther west you go, higher totals the farther east.

Any rain is certainly welcomed at this point, especially given the lack of rainfall in 2022 (which rang in as the 2nd driest year on record in San Antonio!) and so far in 2023.

In fact, as of Sunday evening, San Antonio has only officially recorded 0.01″ of rain this month. The average for the entire month of January is 1.96″, so we’re already a bit behind in the rainfall department this year.

Only 0.01″ of rain has officially been recorded in San Antonio so far this month.

Whatever we do find in terms of rainfall totals is certainly welcomed, but for most of us, it won’t be enough to completely alleviate our current drought conditions. According to NOAA, we need 9″ – 12″ of rainfall in Bexar County to get rid of the drought.

Here’s the latest drought monitor that was released last Thursday (1/19) for reference:

Due to the lack of rainfall in 2022 and so far in 2023, drought conditions continue to persist across the majority of South Central Texas.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER?

  • In short: Severe weather is not overly expected in our area at the moment, but we’ll keep eyes on a few storms that could try to pop up, especially in our far eastern counties.

In the Storm Prediction Center’s latest update, the better chance for a strong-to-severe storm looks to be just east of our area.

Severe weather isn’t overly anticipated in South Central Texas, with the better chances of strong storms east of our area.

WEATHER ON-THE-GO

Still, Your Weather Authority will continue to update you as this next rain/storm chance approaches. We’ll send notifications right to your phones, and you can see the forecast and check the radar by downloading the KSAT Weather Authority App for Apple or Android. 📱 Be sure to allow notifications for updates, including livestreams from KSAT meteorologists.

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