Almost two weeks after the climatological peak of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Sept. 10), the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the Southern Caribbean for a high chance of tropical development in the coming days.
As of the Thursday afternoon update from the NHC, forecasters note that the system is producing disorganized shower and storm activity, but winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere are currently preventing the disturbance from rapidly developing. However, as the system tracks to the northwest, the environment is expected to become more favorable for development into the upcoming weekend. Scientists say that at least a tropical depression is likely to form in that timeframe, but regardless of development, the system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Windward Islands and portions of Venezuela as early as Thursday.
After the system treks across the Caribbean Sea, guidance suggests that it then works its way into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. From there, it is still too early to determine exactly where the disturbance travels. Better and more reliable data will start to come in after the system fully forms and as Hurricane Hunters continue to fly into the wave and collect measurements. While this is currently no immediate concern for the Texas Coast, everyone along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor how this disturbance progresses.
Overall, here’s what we know
A tropical disturbance in the Southern Caribbean is expected to strengthen into at least a tropical depression in the coming days
The system will track northwestward, through the Caribbean this weekend
The disturbance will likely emerge into the Gulf by the middle of next week
Here’s what we need to monitor
Where exactly the system goes after it enters the Gulf
Just how strong the disturbance is at that point
Early Look: Weather Pattern Next Week
A few other forecast notes that could influence where the system moves:
A “cold” front is expected to move through the State of Texas early next week, and bring slightly “cooler” and drier air to South Central Texas. High pressure then sets up behind the front, bringing northerly upper level winds to the area. Depending on how far south the front is able to travel and how long those upper level winds stick around, that overall pattern could steer the system farther to the east. Still way too early for certainties, but something we’ll continue to closely keep eyes on over the next several days.
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