SPC Jun 24, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

 SPC AC 240656 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...ADJACENT NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK (STATE)... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the middle and upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis.. Models indicate that blocking will persist across the northeastern Pacific vicinity through this period. At mid/upper levels, the high may become a bit more prominent while shifting toward the southern Alaska/Yukon border vicinity. The low to its south may slowly weaken and begin to shift toward the northern Pacific coast. However, short wave ridging likely will be maintained across much of the Pacific Northwest. Within the northern branch of the split downstream flow, a couple of significant short wave perturbations are forecast to remain progressive, within northwesterly to westerly flow around an elongated vortex centered east through north of Hudson Bay. While one begins to dig into the Canadian Prairies, it appears that the lead impulse may begin to split into smaller perturbations, with one digging through the Great Lakes region during the latter half of the period. As this occurs, cool surface ridging is forecast to continue shifting southeastward through much of the interior of the U.S., and mid/upper ridging may become increasingly suppressed to the east the Rockies. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Great Lakes region... In advance of the primary surface cold frontal zone, a narrow corridor of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may contribute to sizable CAPE with daytime heating. The largest CAPE likely will remain confined to the south of the westerlies, where forcing to support thunderstorm development remains more unclear. However, in advance of the digging short wave trough, destabilization, near/ahead of the deeper surface troughing forecast across parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes by late Sunday afternoon, may become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorms. While low-level wind fields may remain weak, it is possible that mid-level flow could become marginally conducive to organizing convection posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/24/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z 

Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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