SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 24, 2022
Updated: Fri Jun 24 08:52:02 UTC 2022
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D4 Mon, Jun 27, 2022 – Tue, Jun 28, 2022 D7 Thu, Jun 30, 2022 – Fri, Jul 01, 2022
D5 Tue, Jun 28, 2022 – Wed, Jun 29, 2022 D8 Fri, Jul 01, 2022 – Sat, Jul 02, 2022
D6 Wed, Jun 29, 2022 – Thu, Jun 30, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion
 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Following an intrusion of cooler low-level air to the east of the Rockies, along with at least some suppression of mid-level ridging that may persist into early next week, models suggest that the mid-level ridging will at least attempt to rebuild across the central and southern tier of the U.S. into the middle to latter portion of next week. It appears that this will occur as a deep mid-level low emerging from the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes turns southward and southeastward across the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same time, upstream flow may remain split around persist ridging near/inland the Canadian Pacific coast and troughing near or offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. Models do indicate that at least one significant perturbation will emerge from the offshore troughing and progress inland of the Pacific Northwest coast early next week, before accelerating eastward and becoming increasingly deformed within a confluent regime near the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. While this impulse could contribute to convective development across parts of the northern intermountain region and Rockies next Tuesday, it seems that severe weather potential may be limited by the lack of more substantive moisture return. Farther east, a plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, coupled with moistening low-level return flow, may contribute to increasing potential instability across parts of the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest during the middle to latter portion of next week. While this regime may become conditionally supportive of severe thunderstorms, including organized thunderstorm clusters, the predictability of this development remains low at this extended time frame. ..Kerr.. 06/24/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT 


Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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