SPC May 14, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

 SPC AC 141629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across large swaths of the central states. The most probable corridor for large hail is across western Kansas this afternoon into early evening, and across southern Nebraska into far northern Kansas overnight. ...Western KS to west TX... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening, most probable across parts of western KS and TX Big Country regions. The most likely corridor for a few high-based supercells appears centered on western KS, along the northwest periphery of relatively higher surface dew points across OK and where the 12Z DDC/OUN soundings sampled mean mixing ratios around 10 g/kg. While low-level SRH should remain small, effective bulk shear from 40-45 kts should support a threat for large hail and locally strong-severe outflow gusts. This activity will diminish after dusk. ...South-central/southeast NE and northeast KS... A shortwave impulse over WA will quickly progress towards the SD/NE border area on the backside of a deeper longwave trough over south-central Canada. A pronounced upper-level jet streak will spread towards the Mid-MO Valley, while 800-700 mb frontogenesis intensifies over southern NE into northeast KS. Increasing elevated buoyancy amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates will support intensifying elevated convection in the 09-12Z time frame. A couple fast-moving, longer-tracked elevated supercells are possible, with large hail as the primary threat. ...Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley... Deep-layer flow/shear will be quite weak from the Lower OH River north into Lower MI, where surface heating will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (weaker north) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Modest low-level convergence and minimal convective inhibition should support scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon, with the potential for localized wind damage from downbursts. Somewhat richer low-level moisture and larger CAPE are expected farther south into the Lower MS Valley region, though there is some lingering influence from remnant morning convection across the Ark-La-Miss. Where pockets of stronger surface heating occur, especially in conjunction with lingering outflow boundaries, a few multicell clusters with strong/isolated damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail will be possible. ..Grams/Jewell.. 05/14/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z 

Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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