SPC May 14, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

 SPC AC 141730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley, the Ozarks, the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the lower Ohio Valley tomorrow. Scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps large hail are also possible in parts of the Northwest. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move through the central Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A weak surface low is expected to develop in Oklahoma. A east-west cold front will be positioned from near the Kansas/Nebraska border into the upper Midwest. A moist boundary layer (low/mid 60s F dewpoints in the Ozarks/Mid-South) will exist ahead of the cold front that will eventually move southward through the day. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Convection is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period. Long hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor a few elevated supercells capable of large hail. Isolated wind gusts may occur, but the boundary layer will generally remain stable during the morning. Some uncertainty exists with regard to when stronger gusts will more readily make it to the surface, though this potential should generally remain south of the Kansas City Metro. ...Southeastern Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks... Strong heating is expected ahead of the early-day convection in the Mid-Missouri Valley. As low-level lapse rates steepen, strong wind gusts should become more widespread during the afternoon. Long hodographs will favor some supercell structures, though the advancing cold front may tend to organize storms linearly with time. Scattered damaging wind gusts appear possible given MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates in the low/mid troposphere. Bowing segments moving along the boundary appear most probable, though outflow from storms could also initiate severe storms farther to the west. Initial storms along outflow would likely be supercellular and capable of large hail. Given lower confidence in the position of those storms, higher hail probabilities will be withheld. ...Northwest... A shortwave trough will be favorably timed with afternoon peak heating in parts of eastern Oregon/Washington into adjacent Idaho. Though MLCAPE will be on the marginal side due to limited moisture and some cloud cover, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Effective shear values of 40-50 kts will favor marginal supercell structures capable of wind damage and perhaps large hail. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Surface heating within a relatively moist boundary-layer regime will promote storms within some of the higher terrain. Weak shear and modest mid-level lapse rates will keep storm intensity marginal. However, a few stronger wind gusts and marginally severe hail may occur. ..Wendt.. 05/14/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z 

Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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