SPC MD 1268

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Mesoscale Discussion 1268
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 Mesoscale Discussion 1268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232216Z - 240015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores into the evening hours. A WW issuance is unlikely given the sparse nature of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity with the onset of peak afternoon heating. These relatively dry thunderstorms are developing atop a deep, dry boundary layer extending up to 600-500 mb per latest RAP forecast soundings. Given the state of this boundary layer, skinny CAPE is constrained above 600 mb. 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and relatively long, slightly curved hodographs will support small, splitting supercell structures through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores given ample potential for evaporative cooling and hail/graupel melting in the dry boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the severe threat is expected to be quite isolated and brief, with no WW issuance anticipated. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/23/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46671061 47880953 48610876 48940762 49090539 49040475 47790569 46170768 45650914 45651007 45941064 46671061 
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Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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