SPC MD 1270

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Mesoscale Discussion 1270
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 Mesoscale Discussion 1270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Areas affected...ast-central South Dakota...Central and Northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240015Z - 240245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across parts of east-central South Dakota southward into central Nebraska. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats. The severe potential appears marginal and weather watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough in the western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is analyzed over central South Dakota, with a moist airmass is in place to the east and north of the low. Isolated convection is ongoing to the north of the low east of Mobridge. Surface dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s F along the instability axis, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the subtle shortwave trough will support continued isolated thunderstorm development this evening. A storm or two could also develop along a dryline southward into north-central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates are generally in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45780014 45939959 45959902 45859852 45539817 45149821 44509854 43889878 43049879 42359898 41779957 41380017 41280050 41360093 41550119 41810122 42170108 42630088 43470068 44240063 44870062 45280053 45550038 45780014 
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Original News Source Link – National Weather Service

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