SPC MD 757

 Mesoscale Discussion 0757 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Areas affected...South-Central MO...North-Central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141939Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong downburst or two is possible over portions of south-central MO and north-central AR this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted within the area of deeper cumulus over central MO/AR border vicinity. Modest low-level moisture convergence over the region will likely result in continued convective attempts and eventually a few deeper, more persistent updrafts. The overall environment is characterized by weak shear and moderate buoyancy, with a predominantly multicellular storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates will likely support a strong downburst or two. Additional development is possible on any storm outflow, with discrete propagation into more of north-central AR possible. Limited severe coverage will preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35729349 36579362 36969347 37439255 37159172 36189108 35259147 35159287 35729349