The Cowboys have resurrected their playoff chances. Where do they stand now?
DALLAS — And just like that, the Dallas Cowboys will head into December with very meaningful football games on deck.
It didn’t appear that would be the case a few weeks ago, after Dallas lost to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football (which followed a blowout loss to the Denver Broncos the week before). But a bye week, the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson on defense and the continued emergence of George Pickens as a top receiver in the NFL have turned the Cowboys’ fortunes.
After three straight wins, including a 31-28 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have kept their playoff hopes alive heading into the last full month of the season.
Here’s where the playoff picture stands, as of Friday, Nov. 28:
Where are the Cowboys in the standings?
At 6-5-1, the Cowboys are in second place in the NFC East behind the Eagles, who are 8-3. While Philly has maintained a hold on the division the last couple years, it’s worth noting the Eagles offense has struggled (a lot) in recent weeks, and they face a pair of tough opponents in the Chicago Bears on Sunday and the Los Angeles Chargers (on the road) on Dec. 8. The Cowboys are 1-1 against the Eagles on the season, so any tiebreakers would go to best winning percentage in games played within the division. However, a tie is unlikely since the Cowboys have that pesky (or perhaps beneficial?) tie on their ledger.
The Cowboys stand closer in the Wild card race, though only barely. The NFC is strong this season, so the current 7th-place team — the four division winners and three next-best records make the playoffs — is the San Francisco 49ers, at 8-4. The Cowboys, in 9th place, gained ground on the Detroit Lions, who sit at 7-5 after losing to the Packers on Thursday.
The Cowboys’ matchup against the Lions next week might not be “must win” just yet, but it’s close.
What needs to happen for the Cowboys to make the playoffs?
Stating the obvious: The Cowboys need to keep winning. Also stating the obvious: They need help from the Eagles, who would need to stumble down the stretch to let Dallas back into the division race. But the Cowboys really need some help from the teams that play the 49ers, since Dallas doesn’t face San Francisco this year and needs to catch up for that final Wild Card spot.
In fact, the only team the Cowboys play that is currently in front of them in the NFC standings is the Lions. The flip side to that is that Dallas should be favored against Minnesota, Washington and New York, and they also catch the 7-4 Chargers at home.
If the Cowboys can finish 4-1 and end up 10-6-1 on the season, they’ll have positioned themselves for a playoff spot.
But now, for the glass-half-empty viewpoint…
What can’t happen for the Cowboys to make the playoffs?
Dallas simply doesn’t have much room for error, either in trying to catch the Eagles or trying to squeeze into a Wild Card spot. And even if the Cowboys are solid down the stretch, the Carolina Panthers — despite looking bad half the season — are at 6-6 and have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas (thanks, Rico Dowdle).
A 9-7-1 finish by the Cowboys (which would be 3-2 in their remaining games) would risk the Panthers overtaking them in the standings. It would also, likely, put the 49ers out of reach, and you have to assume Dan Campbell will rally the Lions into playoff contention.
Also worth noting: The 49ers will be favored in their next two games, against the Browns and Titans, and then they’ll face a good Colts team — but one with recent injury concerns around quarterback Daniel Jones.
The Lions have a tougher road. After hosting Dallas, they’ll travel to the top-seeded Rams, then host Pittsburgh before traveling to the Vikings and Bears.
One scenario to consider
The Packers, like the Cowboys, are also on a three-game win streak. However … they have a tough schedule down the stretch, playing the Bears twice, traveling to Denver and playing a resurgent Ravens team. Then they’ll finish the season on the road at their rival Vikings.
The Packers (8-3-1) also are the only other team with a tie in their record. So while the Lions and 49ers are the next two teams ahead of Dallas, it’s not inconceivable to imagine the Cowboys and Packers finishing with the same record. In that case, a somewhat elaborate tiebreaker process would begin, starting with best record within the conference, then a best record in common games. If needed, strength of victory and strength of schedule would come into play.
The Packers are 6-2-1 in the NFC, much better than the Cowboys’ 3-4-1, but the Cowboys have four NFC games remaining to the Packers’ three. So ground could be made up.