Vinny Minchillo says the winning campaign will come down to who controls the message better
AUSTIN, Texas — The long anticipated U.S. Senate primary matchup between Republican incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton is a go.
Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo says Texans can expect a bitter battle.
“This is going to be a back alley knife fight with rusty knives,” Minchillo told us on Inside Texas Politics. “When Paxton declared, the first words out of Cornyn’s mouth were ‘he’s a con man and a fraud.’ That’s the first thing he said. So, this is going to be tough.”
Minchillo has worked on a number of political campaigns, including the presidential campaigns for George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. He’s also a principal at Glass House Strategy, a north Texas firm involved in everything from political consulting to branding and strategy.
Minchillo says the winning Senate campaign will be the one that keeps control of the message.
“For Cornyn, he wants it to be ‘good versus evil.’ For Paxton, he wants it to be ‘I’m the conservative versus the anti-Trump moderate.’ That’s what it’s going to come down to,” argued the marketing expert.
Cornyn was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002 and is currently serving his fourth term. He sits on the Senate Finance, Judiciary, Intelligence, Foreign Relations, and Budget Committees.
Paxton was first elected as the 51st Attorney General of Texas in 2014 and was just re-elected to a third term as the state’s top law enforcement officer in 2022.
This bruising battle is one the last races in Texas pitting a Bush-era Republican (Cornyn) versus a Trump-era Republican (Paxton).
“So, what that means is I think Cornyn’s going to have to build and execute the biggest get-out-the-vote system the state’s ever seen because those voters that he’s counting on are not the ones that always come out for every single election. So, he’s going to have to drive them out,” Minchillo predicted.
And we’re only talking about Cornyn and Paxton because they’re the only two to announce for the race so far.
There is a great deal of chatter that Congressman Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, will soon join the race. A new ad is airing in parts of Texas praising Hunt’s work on behalf of President Donald Trump’s agenda. That ad buy is said to be in the seven figures and could be indicative of a run.
Congressman Michael McCaul is another candidate who might eventually throw his hat into the ring. McCaul is currently serving his eleventh term representing Texas’ 10th Congressional District and continues to sit on the House Foreign Affairs committee as well as the Homeland Security committee, both of which he once chaired.
Minchillo says Hunt would steal votes from Paxton, while McCaul would siphon votes away from Cornyn.
The Republican consultant says Texas Democrats would rather see Paxton on the ballot come November 2026, and they might even work to make that happen.
“And I would not be surprised to see some Democrat money flow into this primary to try to get Paxton over the line,” Minchillo said.
While Paxton does not have to resign as Attorney General in order to run for U.S. Senate, state law says, “a candidate cannot file applications for two or more offices that will be voted on at one or more elections held on the same day.” And the Texas Constitution generally prohibits dual office holding.
That means the list of Republicans running for Texas Attorney General could be quite long.
John Bash, a former U.S. Attorney in the Western District of Texas during President Trump’s first term and a current lawyer for Elon Musk, has already announced his candidacy.
Minchillo tells us other potential candidates include former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and former Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, both of whom ran in the Republican primary for AG in 2022 before ultimately losing to Paxton.
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, who switched parties in 2023 and became a Republican, state Representative Mitch Little, R-Lewisville, who served as one of Paxton’s attorneys during his impeachment trial, and state Senator Brian Hughes, R-Tyler, have all been mentioned as possible candidates as well.
“You could have a pretty big field. That job doesn’t open up very often, so you’ll have a big field,” Minchillo told us matter-of-factly.