Houston Texans playoff picture: Where the team stands now, and where they could end up

HOUSTON — The NFL season is in the home stretch, with teams fighting for spots in the playoffs. After the Texans topped Arizona on Sunday, they improved their chances of making it in.

According to NFL.com, the Texans now have a 94% chance to make the playoffs – a good position to be in, considering they lost their first three games of the season.

As it stands now, the 9-5 Texans are the No. 7 seed. With three games left, a lot could still happen. The team could miss the playoffs, or they could move up as high as the No. 2 seed.

Here are the playoff teams and seedings as they stand right now. The top four are division leaders, who get the first four spots regardless of record.

• Denver Broncos, 12-2 | Remaining: Jacksonville, @KC, LA Chargers
• New England Patriots, 11-3 | Remaining: @Ravens, @NE Jets, Dolphins
• Jacksonville Jaguars, 10-4 | Remaining: @Broncos, @Indy, Titans
• Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-6 | Remaining: Dolphins, @Detroit, @Cleveland, Baltimore
• Los Angeles Chargers, 10-4 | Remaining: @Cowboys, Texans, @Broncos
• Buffalo Bills, 10-4 | Remaining: @Browns, Eagles, Jets
• Houston Texans, 9-5 | Remaining: Raiders, @LA Chargers, Indy

These are the three teams on the outside looking in that haven’t been eliminated:

• Indianapolis Colts, 8-6 | Remaining: 49ers, Jacksonville, @Houston
• Baltimore Ravens, 7-7 | Remaining: Patriots, @Green Bay, @Pittsburgh
• Miami Dolphins, 6-7 | Remaining: @Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, @New England

To finish the regular season, the Texans have the Las Vegas Raiders at home, followed by a showdown with the Chargers in LA, and then the Colts at home.

Jacksonville leads the Texans by one game in the AFC South. If Houston wins their final three and Jacksonville wins zero or one of its last three, Houston wins the division by virtue of a better record. If Jacksonville wins all three, they’re division champs.

If Houston and Jacksonville end up tied at the end of the year, it goes to tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups. The teams are 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is division record. Right now, Jacksonville is 3-1. Houston is 4-1. Jacksonville still has Indy and Tennessee on the schedule. Houston has Indy. So they could end up tied there, too. After that, it goes to the records against common opponents.

Right now, the Texans are 6-2 against common opponents, including division rivals, while the Jags are 5-2.  The could wind up tied there,, as well. 

The next tiebreaker — conference records. As you may have guessed, the teams are tied with identical 7-2 AFC records.

If it’s still tied when the dust settles, it goes to the combined winning percentage of the teams beaten, then strength of schedule.

So the division has a long way to go before it’s decided.

If the Texans win their final three games and the Patriots lose their final three, as long as the Jaguars and Bills don’t sweep their final three games, and if the Jaguars don’t hold the tiebreaker over the Texans.

That spot is for the division winner with the third-best record.  Right now, it’s whichever team wins the AFC South.

They could end up No. 4 if the AFC North division winner ends up with a better record than the AFC South division winner, and if the Texans win the AFC South, assuming they don’t move up to the No. 2 spot.

Right now, it’s a spot the Chargers have as the top wild-card. The Texans play the Chargers in two weeks and if they beat LA, they’ll own the tiebreaker and could pull even with them.

Right now, it’s a spot owned by the Buffalo Bills, and the Bills have a one-game lead over the Texans in the conference standings. But, Houston beat Buffalo head-to-head, so if they finish tied, Houston would be above Buffalo in the playoff picture.

There’s also a chance Houston falls out of the playoffs. That would happen if the Colts, Ravens, or Dolphins overtake them in the standings and the teams ahead of Houston  stay ahead of them. As it stands now, the teams behind Houston would have to finish with a better record than the Texans because the Texans currently own the tiebreakers with all three teams.

The long and short of it?  There is still a lot that can happen in the last three weeks of the season for the Texans, so stay tuned, buckle up, and get ready for a wild finish and — hopefully — a deep postseason run.