With two games to go, the Texans have strong odds to make the postseason, but there are plenty of possibilities on where they could land.
HOUSTON — There’s only one playoff spot up for grabs in the AFC, and after a seven-game win streak, the Texans are in prime position to claim it.
Depending on which outlet you look at, the team has between a 97% and 99% chance of making the playoffs. But until it’s 100%, there’s still a chance the Texans stay home this postseason. There’s also a chance they could move up in the playoff seedings — all the way to No. 1.
So here are the possibilities.
First, the Texans can secure a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Chargers this Saturday. They can also clinch a spot with an Indianapolis loss or a tie against Jacksonville on Sunday.
If Houston loses and Indy wins, it could set up a showdown in the final week of the season between Houston and Indianapolis that would put the winner in the playoffs and end the loser’s season. It would then come down to several tiebreaker scenarios, including strength of victories. So technically, Houston could still find itself out of the playoffs.
At the same time, there’s also a chance – albeit itty-bitty – that Houston jumps all the way up to the No. 1 seed. They’re two games behind both Denver and New England, so if Houston wins out and New England and Denver both lose out, the Texans, Patriots, and Broncos would all be tied, so it goes to tiebreakers. While Denver owns the tiebreaker over the Texans, if the Broncos lose out and the Chargers go 1-1, the Chargers would win the AFC West, and the Texans — if they go 2-0 — would own the tiebreaker over the Chargers. Jacksonville and Buffalo would also have to go 1-1 each. So, basically, don’t count on a bye for the Texans.
They could also win the AFC South. Right now, Houston is one game back of the red-hot Jaguars. If the Jags lose out and the Texans win out, Houston is the AFC South champ and likely moves up to the No. 3 seed. If Houston and Jacksonville tie, there are a bunch of tiebreaker scenarios that will come into focus after this weekend’s games are complete, but Houston would likely win based on what would be a better division record.
So even though there are just a couple of games left in the regular season, there are a whole lot of possibilities for the Texans, all the way from the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs.
And if the playoffs started today, Houston would be in, and they’d have a first-round matchup against New England.
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