With two games to go, the Texans have strong odds to make the postseason, but there are plenty of possibilities on where they could land.
HOUSTON — There’s only one playoff spot up for grabs in the AFC, and after a seven-game win streak, the Texans are in prime position to claim it.
Depending on which outlet you look at, the team has between a 97% and 99% chance of making the playoffs. But until it’s 100%, there’s still a chance the Texans stay home this postseason. There’s also a chance they could move up in the playoff seeding. Before the Christmas Day games, they had a very slight chance to move up to No. 1, but the Broncos’ win over the Chiefs dashed those hopes, so now the highest they can get is No. 2.
So here are the possibilities.
How the Texans make the playoffs or how they could miss them
First, the Texans can secure at least a wild card spot with a win or a tie against the Chargers this Saturday. They can also clinch a spot with an Indianapolis loss or a tie against Jacksonville on Sunday.
If Houston loses and Indy wins, it could set up a showdown in the final week of the season between Houston and Indianapolis that would put the winner in the playoffs and end the loser’s season. It would then come down to several tiebreaker scenarios, including strength of victory. So technically, Houston could still find itself out of the playoffs.
The Texans can climb to as high as No. 2 in the playoffs
As for overall seeds in the AFC playoffs, it’s now mathematically impossible for the Texans to catch Denver for the No. 1 seed after the Broncos knocked off the Chiefs on Christmas Day.
There is, however, still a chance for Houston to catch New England. If Houston wins out and New England loses out, the Texans and Patriots would be tied, and it goes to tiebreakers. The two teams didn’t play each other this year, so there’s no head-to-head record. As for conference records, Houston is 8-2 and New England is 7-3. So they own the tiebreaker over New England there. (New England faces the New York Jets and Miami in the final two games, so the odds of losing out are small).
But to have a chance of that happening, Houston would have to win the AFC South and right now, they’re one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars.
How does Houston win the AFC South?
If Houston wins out and the Jaguars go 1-1, Houston would be division champs based on a tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, and this year, the Jags and Texans each won once against each other. After that, it goes to divisional record. Houston is 4-1 and Jacksonville is 3-1. If the Jags lose one of their final two games (which are both against divisional opponents) and Houston wins out, the Texans would have a better division record and would win the AFC South, likely moving up to the No. 3 seed, with a chance at No. 2, depending on what happens with the AFC East.
So even though there are just a couple of games left in the regular season, there are a whole lot of possibilities for the Texans, all the way from the No. 2 seed to out of the playoffs.
And if the playoffs started today, Houston would be in, and they’d have a first-round matchup against New England.
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