No. 1 seeds were perfect against 16-seeds for over 30 years before 2018 when the first upset happened.
WASHINGTON — We are just a few hours into the 2026 March Madness tournament and there is already drama.
The No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, Duke, was down to Siena by 11 points at halftime on Thursday. Duke kicked it into gear in the second half and rallied to avoid the upset, winning 71-65.
But it got us thinking about the times that 16-seeds pulled off the upset against the top seeds in the tournament.
According to the NCAA, 16 seeds have just a 1.25% chance of the upset. So, you’re telling me there’s a chance…
How many No. 16 seeds have upset No. 1 seeds in the tournament?
No. 1 seeds have historically dominated 16-seeds, but they are not perfect.
Through 2017, those No. 1 seeds were 135-0 against No. 16 seeds, but that all changed when University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) matched up against Virginia in 2018.
Not only did UMBC beat Virginia, but they absolutely clobbered them, 74-54. UMBC advanced to the second round where they were beat by Kansas State 50-43.
Number 1 seeds were perfect against 16 seeds in 2019-2022, but there was another upset in 2023 when Farleigh Dickinson University knocked off Purdue University by a score of 63-58. According to the NCAA, more than 97% of brackets that year had Purdue advancing past FDU.
Another interesting tidbit from this upset was that Purdue team was the tallest team in the tournament, and FDU was clocked in as the shortest team in the tournament.
How much more likely is a 15-2 upset?
According to the NCAA, 15-seeds have upset 2-seeds 11 times which makes it 5.5 times more likely to happen than a 16-seed over a 1-seed.
Overall, 15-seeds beat 2-seeds in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Before that, it had not happened since 2016.