Know thy enemy: What’s awaiting Cowboys in season finale versus Washington

DALLAS — The regular season finale is here for the Dallas Cowboys, who will not be making the playoffs for the first time since 2020. That’s a harsh reality for a team that won 12 games in each of the last three seasons and began the season claiming Super Bowl aspirations. 

To push the knife in even further, the Cowboys will be facing the Washington Commanders in Week 18, a team on the rise with their quarterback of the future in tow being led by former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. And it’s the Commanders who have an opportunity to win their 12th game of the year if they can handle the Cowboys ahead of their tuneup for the postseason.

In the first matchup back in Week 12, the Cowboys were able to win one of the wildest games in the NFL this season with an incredible back-and-forth fourth quarter. It’ll be hard to live up to that game, but if the Cowboys want to go out on a winning note, they’ll have to find a way to slow down a team that’s won four straight contests. 

Here are the strengths and weaknesses for the Commanders in Dallas’ last gasp:

The Commanders have finally found their signal caller of the future and the present is now as Daniels has a strong case to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Daniels not only broke the rookie rushing record for quarterbacks, but he also leads the NFL in rushing yards by a QB on the season.

His legs are dangerous, but Daniels can also beat teams with his arm. The rookie has thrown for 25 scores, tied for eighth in the league, and is sixth in completion percentage at 69.4%.

The Cowboys will need to find a way to limit the amount of damage that one of the best dual threat QBs can do. In the first matchup, Daniels accounted for 349 yards and three touchdowns, so Mike Zimmer’s defense has their work cut out for them in the second meeting if they want to pull off the upset.

The Commanders have problems stopping the run, just as Quinn’s defenses did when he was in Dallas. Joe Whitt’s defense is giving almost 137 yards per game on the ground, good for 28th in the league, while also allowing 4.8 yards per carry, third worst in the NFL. 

The Washington defense has also allowed 17 rushing scores and the Cowboys have gotten 100+ yard performances from running back Rico Dowdle in four of the five contests since these two teams last played.

When Washington can’t get a lead and stop their opponents from committing to the run, they have been prone to being gashed on the ground. In 16 games this season, the Commanders have given up over 100 yards rushing in all but two games and they’ve surrendered 200+ yards on the ground three times. The Cowboys were one of those teams that failed to rush for 100 yards but found a way to win in the first meeting.

If teams put in the effort to run the ball, the Commanders have been powerless to stop it.

The veteran wide receiver is having perhaps his best season in his sixth year. McLaurin surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth consecutive year, has a career high 12 touchdowns, and is just one of five WRs to have 1,000 yards receiving and double-digit scores on the season.

Those are impressive numbers for a wideout who is playing with a rookie QB and has seen his worst target share since entering the league. Despite the lack of opportunities, McLaurin is cashing in and making those targets count as the top WR for the Commanders.

The Cowboys have been one of the better teams at slowing McLaurin down over the years, but that was usually because of cornerback Trevon Diggs getting the best of his counterpart. Diggs is out for this game, and he didn’t play in the first meeting where McLaurin caught five passes for 102 yards and one huge score.

The defense will have to be better in round two to sweep the Commanders.

The Commanders’ offense is fourth in the NFL in total yards per game, but they have trouble keeping Daniels on his feet. Their offensive line has allowed 44 sacks, which is 11th worst in the league, but it’s a number that could be worse if Daniels weren’t able to elude some of the pressure he’s faced.

Daniels is also responsible for some of those sacks by standing in the pocket and trying to extend plays. The rookie was sacked five times in last week’s win, which came after being taken down eight times a few games earlier.

The Cowboys are tied for fifth in the league with 46 sacks and had four in the first meeting. If the defense can get to Daniels early and often, they’ll have a chance at winning in Week 18.

For a secondary that doesn’t have any elite talent on paper, the Commanders have one of the best passing defenses in the league by results. Washington’s defense is third in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 187.1 yards per game, while allowing only two QBs – Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson – to throw for more than 300 yards against them in a game this year. 

The Commanders have also held an impressive number of QBs – five – to under 150 yards passing this year, as finding solid play from the secondary continues to be a hallmark of a Quinn-coached defense.

There is good news for the Cowboys should they be asked to take things to the air. Despite being a top team against the pass in yards per game, the Commanders only have seven interceptions and have given up 25 passing scores. 

Do you think the Cowboys will finish their season with a victory in Week 18? Share your predictions with Ben on X (formerly Twitter) @BenGrimaldi.