Nate’s Take: Predicting every round of the NCAA Tournament

SAN ANTONIO — Soak it in, San Antonio. For the next three weeks, you are the most sought-after destination in North America. 

Apologies to the various spring break hotbeds (Sorry, PCB, Puerto Vallarta and South Padre Island), but those places are easily accessible with a neon wristband and cheap hotel room. A trip to San Antonio this spring is not given; it’s earned. 

And everyone wants a ticket.

For the last 49 or so weeks, middle-aged college basketball coaches have been dreaming visions of the Alamo. River Walk hotel reservations have poured in from far-away lands like East Lansing, Gainesville and the borough of Queens. National television crews have scouted filming locations around Hemisfair Park.

Over the next three weeks, the greatest tournament in sports will play out across some of the best atmospheres in the country. And for the fifth time in its vaunted history, it will culminate in San Antonio.

The Final Four is so much more than just basketball games. You’ll experience it in the 100,000-plus people that descend on our city the first weekend of April. You’ll hear it when you’re listening an award-winning musical artists — Pitbull, Jelly Roll, Chris Stapleton among them — at the free concerts at Tower Park. Maybe you’ll feel it in the smack-talk email you receive from the HR employee you didn’t know existed when they inevitably surpass you in your March Madness office pool. 

That is, if you’re actually at the office and not at home on the couch watching games.

I know you’ll see it when the champion hoists the trophy on April 7 on the San Antonio River. The best part for us is that there’s two winners: the winning school the City of San Antonio.

It would appear I love college basketball. It started from an annual tradition with my father as a child, road-tripping NCAA Tournament games to Indianapolis to watch schools we had no affiliation with put their dreams on the line. I always resonated with the idea of the underdog. There’s been a few stops since then, including covering an actual underdog, 12-seed New Mexico State, in 2022, when those Aggies were the last team to beat UCONN in the NCAA Tournament.

Today, I am the sports guy for the network that will air the Final Four in the city where the games will be played…

…and it’s precisely these reasons that my bracket will inevitably tank within the first hour of the first day of games. 

But here are my picks anyway. If history tells us anything, take the opposite.

#1 Auburn vs. #16 Alabama State
Pick: Auburn

Alabama State needs their flowers. They started the tournament off hot with the full-court pass to beat St. Francis in the First Four; it had me gasping audibly in the newsroom. 

I think my coworkers were annoyed, but I get a free pass this week. 

Hornets coach Tony Madlock is a former Auburn assistant who has coached at big schools. Alabama State might be the best of the 16-seeds. Sadly, Auburn has the size to run them out.

#8 Louisville vs. #9 Creighton
Pick: Creighton

Creighton is so tough around the rim with 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner, the 4-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Louisville has had a strong, surprising year, but they only go about seven to eight deep. If they get in foul trouble with Kalkbrenner, they will be thin.

#5 Michigan vs. #12 UC-San Diego
Pick: Michigan

San Diego is getting a lot of buzz, but they haven’t played a Power 5 team all year. Michigan has been through the ringer.
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#4 Texas A&M vs. #13 Yale
Pick: Texas A&M

Yale won their first round game last year, but this is a brutal matchup for them. A&M is fantastic on the glass, and Yale will need every extra possession to pull any hope of upset. 

I don’t think it happens. Plus, the Aggies can score it.

#6 Ole Miss vs. #11 North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina

With the way they were shooting the ball (58% from three-point land) in the win over San Diego St., the Heels appear to be on the warpath. When RJ Davis is cooking, he’s one of the best players in America. Carolina feels like they have something to prove.

#3 Iowa State vs. #14 Lipscomb
Pick: Iowa State

Don’t make this hard. 

The Cyclones have faltered down the regular season, but Lipscomb hasn’t faced a team this deep. Iowa State hasn’t lost a game to a non-Power 5 team all year. The Cyclones will suffocate Lipscomb in Milwaukee.

#7 Marquette vs. #10 New Mexico
Pick: Marquette

This will be a war. I’m going Marquette based on size. Defense for the Lobos has been suspect, and they are one of the worst rebounding teams in America. 

However, PG Donovan Dent is one of the most fun players to watch in America. Sadly, I don’t think there’s enough around him.

#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bryant
Pick: Michigan State

Bryant won’t be scared of the Spartans. They are led by former top recruit Earl Timberlake, who started his career at Miami. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game is close at halftime, but the guard play for Sparty is too much in the 2nd Half.
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Round of 32 

• Auburn over Creighton
• Texas A&M over Michigan
• Iowa State over North Carolina
• Marquette over Michigan State

• Auburn over Texas A&M
• Iowa State over Marquette

Final Four Pick: Auburn

#1 Florida vs. #16 Norfolk State
Pick: Florida

The Gators are the hottest team in America. They have four players averaging double figures, and just eviscerated their way through the country’s most daunting conference tournament. For Norfolk State’s worth, they have one of the best dunkers in the country in Christian Ings……maybe he can take home a poster from the loss.

#8 UCONN vs. #9 Oklahoma
Pick: UCONN

It’s tough to pick against Dan Hurley in March. The physicality from UCONN is a tough matchup for Oklahoma’s uptempo pace. There’s two potential lottery picks in this one….UCONN’s Liam McNeely and Oklahoma Jeremiah Fears. The Huskies are 9-1 when McNeely scores at least 15 points. If he can get hot, the UCONN could be thinking past the first weekend.

#5 Memphis vs. 12 Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State

This comes down to health. The Tigers are fun to watch in space, but they could be missing two of their top guards for this one. Tyrese Hunter, formerly of Texas, & Dante Harris are both dealing with foot injuries. And Penny Hardaway told reporters in Memphis, he’s “praying” for good health. If the guards can’t go, Memphis’ tempo suffers. Colorado State head coach Niko Medved is primed for the Minnesota job after the tournament.

#4 Maryland vs. #13 Grand Canyon
Pick: Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon went to Washington state and upset St. Mary’s last year in a first round game in Spokane. Now they’re in Seattle, and get a team traveling from across the country. Maryland is expected to win, because Grand Canyon has underwhelmed this season. That’s largely because their star, Tyon Grant-Foster has been hurt. Now he’s healthy, and the Lopes offense has averaged over 86 points per game in their last five contests. I think they’ve figured it out.

#6 Missouri vs. #11 Drake
Pick: Drake

I love the Bulldogs. They are essentially an imported Division-II Champion, with coach Ben McCollum bringing his entire title team from Northwest Missouri State with him in his first year at Drake. They went out and won 30 games. Missouri plays one of the quickest tempos in the country, and Drake wants to do the opposite. They’ve scored over 300 points this season when the shot clock goes lower than four seconds, the most in NCAA D-I. With limited possessions, Mizzou might panic.

#3 Texas Tech vs. #14 UNC Wilmington
Pick: Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are so efficient, and rarely get off to slow starts. Wilmington wants to emphasize defense, but that’s a tough ask against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech wants to do the same, and they do it better.

#7 Kansas vs. #10 Arkansas
Pick: Arkansas

Bill Self vs. John Calipari. This is one of the most entertaining first round matchups. I’ll take Arkansas getting the return of five-star freshman Boogie Fland, out since January but making his return this week. The Jayhawks just don’t have as much depth this season. But both programs have been Jekyll & Hyde.

#2 St. John’s vs. #15 Omaha
Pick: St John’s

Search “Omaha trash can” on the web, and you might find yourself rooting for the Mavericks out of the Summit League. But the Johnnies have been waiting for this season for 25 years, and Rick Pitino will not mess around in his old stomping ground of Providence.

Round of 32

• Florida over UCONN
• Grand Canyon over Colorado State
• Drake over Texas Tech
• St. Johns over Arkansas

• Florida over Grand Canyon
• St. John’s over Drake

Final Four Pick: St. John’s

#1 Duke vs. #16 American
Pick: Duke

Presumed top NBA Draft pick Cooper Flagg should play limited minutes here. He essentially missed the ACC Tournament, and his team still took the trophy. Expect him to save up for the stretch run.

#8 Mississippi State vs. #9 Baylor
Pick: Baylor

This will be the most physical game of the first round. 

I hate picking against Chris Jans, but the Bulldogs have lost five of six. Plus, I think Baylor star freshman VJ Edgecombe has been sitting on a monster performance. He’s bought into the Bears’ team mindset, which NBA teams will like…. but I’m banking on Scott Drew letting him cook in the Dance. He’s the best player on the floor.

#5 Oregon vs. #12 Liberty
Pick: Oregon

Tough matchup for Liberty, who struggle on the glass. Oregon’s Nate Bittle should clean up down low, and even Oregon’s guards will muscle through Liberty’s lack of size on the perimeter. 

The Ducks extinguish the Flames.

#4 Arizona vs. #13 Akron
Pick: Arizona

This game will be a track meet: Both teams like to get out and run. Akron’s Nate Johnson won MAC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. 

The Zips will be able to score some points. But Arizona can put super-sophomore KJ Lewis on Johnson, and let their other guards go to work. Too much talent on Arizona.

#6 BYU vs. #11 VCU
Pick: BYU

On Feb. 8, BYU dropped to 15-8 after being blown out by Cincinnati. Now, they enter the Tournament at 24-9, with wins over Iowa State (twice), Kansas and Arizona. 

The Cougars play an NBA-space style led by former NBA assistant coach Kevin Young, and shooting can get you far in March. VCU is talented, but the Cougars are red-hot.

#3 Wisconsin vs. #14 Montana
Pick: Wisconsin

Speaking of scoring, Wisconsin has their best offensive team in years. They have had a top-15 offense all season, and still carry the same defensive identity that Badgers teams historically have. 

Usually, the Badgers run into problems scoring in March. Not the case this year. Fifth-year senior John Tonje is a microwave, with five outings this season of at least 30 points. This is Wisconsin’s best team in years.

#7 St. Mary’s vs. #10 Vanderbilt
Pick: Vanderbilt

St. Mary’s has been to the NCAA Tournament each of the last four years, and never made it past the first weekend. They’re due! If they would have beat Gonzaga in the WCC Championship Game, St. Mary’s probably would be a 5-seed. With three starting seniors, the Gaels know what is at stake.

#2 Alabama vs. #15 Robert Morris
Pick: Alabama

The Tide’s offense will be too much for the Colonials, but it’s worth monitoring the ankle of 6-foot-11 senior Grant Nelson who may not be at full strength. The Spurs actually scouted Nelson when he was back at North Dakota State, and he was a big reason Alabama went to the Final Four a season ago. 

Their chances to get to San Antonio rest on him.

Round of 32

• Duke over Baylor
• Arizona over Oregon
• Wisconsin over BYU
• Alabama over St. Mary’s

• Duke over Arizona
• Wisconsin over Alabama

Final Four Pick: Wisconsin

#1 Houston vs. #16 SIU-Edwardsville
Pick: Houston

Houston has been to at least the Sweet 16 in each of the five seasons. They are always ready on the first weekend.

#8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Georgia
Pick: Georgia

The Zags have the pedigree, but haven’t been the titans we’ve known them to be in recent years. I’ll take the battle-tested Bulldogs, who have projected lottery pick Asa Newell in the post. 

Newell reminds me a little bit of Dereck Lively of the Dallas Mavericks… I know another Texas NBA team that would love a guy like that. And they have two first-round picks.

#5 Clemson vs. #12 McNeese
Pick: McNeese

KENS 5 Chief Meteorologist Bill Taylor is a McNeese alum and would probably eat up all my airtime if I went with Clemson. 

In all seriousness, the Cowboys can play. In a down year in the ACC, McNeese probably would’ve been competitive. McNeese was in the tournament last year, and got blasted by Gonzaga in the first round. I think they learn from it and pick off the Tigers.

#4 Purdue vs. #13 High Point
Pick: High Point

I love me some High Point. 

Texas Tech transfer D’Maurian Williams leads the Panthers into their first ever NCAA Tournament, but this team is deep. After trailing by double-digits in the Big South Conference Championship Game, coach Alan Huss benched his starting five and let his reserves erase a 15-point deficit for the win. Backup point guard Bobby Pettiford, a Kansas and East Carolina transfer, led the way with 17 points. 

All the pressure is on Purdue here. The Boilermakers have a history of bowing out to lower seeds, and High Point will travel well.

#6 Illinois vs. #11 Xavier
Pick: Illinois

I think Xavier gets by Texas in the First Four in a squeaker. But neither team beats Illinois in the Round of 64. 

When the Illini are making transition threes, they are really tough to beat. They have two potential first-round picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley. They’ve also won four of their last five. 

#3 Kentucky vs. #14 Troy
Pick: Kentucky

Troy does not shoot it well from three as a team (30%). And in order to pull an upset of this magnitude, you have to make timely shots. Especially against the lightning-fast pace of the Wildcats.

#7 UCLA vs. #10 Utah State
Pick: UCLA

UCLA always shows up in March. I like the size of Bruin guards Sebastian Mack and Dylan Andrews. Those guys are bonafide closers in tight games. If that happens here, I’ll lean Bruins.

#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Wofford
Pick: Tennessee

The hope here is that Wofford center Kyler Filewich is sent to the free-throw line in a tie game under 10 seconds to go. The Terriers’ big man shoots his free throws “granny-style”-underhanded. 

It’d make for quite the Cinderella storyline… that’s not going to happen.

Round of 32

• Houston over Georgia
• High Point over McNeese
• Illinois over Kentucky
• Tennessee over UCLA

• Houston over High Point
• Tennessee over Illinois

Final Four Pick: Tennessee

• Auburn over St. John’s
• Wisconsin over Tennessee

National Champion: Auburn

Happy dancing.