That all depends on what happens in the last week of the season.
HOUSTON — The Houston Texans are in the playoffs. That, we know. The team locked up a spot in the postseason for the third straight year with their win Saturday over the Los Angeles Chargers. Their position in the playoffs is still to be decided.
We already know the seven teams in the AFC playoffs. The division winners get the top four seeds. The division winner with the best record gets the No. 1 seed, second-best gets the No. 2 seed, etc. Right now, that’s New England, Denver, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh, in that order. Only Denver has its division locked up so far.
AFC South: Texans could still win the division, but need help
Houston (11-5) trails the front-running Jaguars (12-4) by one game after Houston’s win Saturday over the Chargers and Jacksonville’s win Sunday over Indianapolis. Each team has one game remaining. For the Texans to win the division, they’ll need to knock off the Colts at NRG Stadium next weekend and have the three-win Tennessee Titans beat the Jags in Jacksonville. If that happens, both Houston and Jacksonville would have 12-5 records. Houston would win the division based on the tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups. Houston and Jacksonville are 1-1 against each other. It then goes to division records, which would favor Houston if the Jags lose and Texans win.
Conference seeding: Still a lot of moving parts
If Tennessee can’t pull off the miracle in Jacksonville, Houston will enter the playoffs as a wild-card team, regardless of what happens in the Colts-Texans game. Houston will have seed 5, 6, or 7.
Right now, the three wild-card teams are Houston, Buffalo, and the Los Angeles Chargers. They each have identical 11-5 records, but the Texans own the tiebreaker over each team because of their head-to-head matchups. That means Houston is the No. 5 seed. Los Angeles has the tiebreaker over Buffalo, based on records against common opponents, so the Chargers are the No. 6 seed. Buffalo is now the No. 7 seed.
Final week matchups: Big drama in final week
- Colts at Texans
- Titans at Jaguars
- Bills at Jets
- Chargers at Broncos
- Ravens at Steelers
In that Ravens-Steelers matchup, the winner will move on in the playoffs as the division winner and the loser will miss the playoffs. With one game to play, Pittsburgh is 9-7 and Baltimore is 8-8. Right now, the Steelers are the division leaders in the AFC North, but if Baltimore beats them in the final week, the Ravens would claim the division title and move up to the No. 4 seed, knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs.
What is the top seeding the Texans could get?
With Denver and New England both winning, Houston can’t catch them, so the best they can do is the No. 3 seed as division winner. But again, that would take a Titans win over the Jaguars to even be possible. And, of course, Houston would have to beat Indy.
Who will the Texans face in the playoffs?
That all depends on what the final seeding is. As it stands right now, Houston is the No. 6 seed, and here’s how the matchups play out in the first wild-card round of the playoffs.
- No. 1 seed (Currently Denver): Bye week
- No. 7 seed (Currently Buffalo) at No. 2 seed (Currently New England)
- No. 6 (Currently LA Chargers) seed at No. 3 seed (Currently Jacksonville)
- No. 5 seed (Currently Houston) at No. 4 seed (Currently Pittsburgh)
That means the Texans would take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the first round. Houston could still fall back to No. 7 with a loss to Indy next weekend and wins by the Chargers and Bills. Houston could also be No. 6 with a loss to the Colts and wins by either the Bills or the Chargers.
If the Texans do beat the Colts next weekend and stay in that No. 5 spot, the Ravens-Steelers game looms large as Houston would face the winner.
So a lot could change in the last week of the season!
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