Texas fire risk rises amid dry conditions, says NWS

Things have been heating up across Texas despite major forecasters saying El Nino weather patterns could bring the most severe winter weather at the tail end of February. It’s looking like the Lone Start State is going to forgo its seemingly annual late-February winter storm, as temperatures are hitting the 80s across much of the state heading into the weekend of February 23, but there’s a new kind of hazardous weather outlook on the horizon.

The National Weather Service was warning that as rainy days start to seem like a thing of the distant past – it’s been about two weeks since the Alamo City saw any rainfall despite El Nino patterns typically bringing a wetter winter – drought conditions continue to plague Texas.

“It’s kind of just a typical weather pattern I’d say. Usually, the jet stream is pretty active over our area this time of year. So, definitely nothing out of the usual,” National Weather Service Meteorologist Brandon Gale previously told MySA when asked about the recent temperature swings in South Central Texas. “I guess we’re not seeing much rainfall with this cold front just because a lot of the moisture is more focused to the south of Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico.”

With all this dry and warm weather, a front moving over Texas could bring dangerous conditions with wind that could spread fires quickly, according to a hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service.

“Strong west to northwesterly winds and low humidities will result in near critical to critical conditions for the spread of wildfires from the I-35.I-37 corridors west to across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and Winter Garden regions late this morning through early this evening,” the warning posted Thursday, February 22, reads. “A Red Flag warning is in effect for the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Also, a fire danger statement is in effect farther east across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Winter Garden to the I-35/37 corridors from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.”

According to an infographic from the National Weather Service, a Red Flag Warnings alert fire managers on federal lands that “conditions are unfavorable for prescribed burns” which could lead to the spread of dangerous wildfires. The following criteria need to be met for the federal agency to issue a Red Flag Warning:

• 10-hour fuels of 8% or less, meaning 8% of the region have small vegetation, like grass, leaves and mulch, that take about 10 hours to respond to changes in dry or wet weather conditions. Essentially, a decent number of wild plants that dry out quickly amid low humidity and no rainfall.
• There must be relative humidity of less that 25% for several hours in the region. This metric measures how much water is in the air relative to the overall temperature.
• Winds 20 feet off the ground must reach at least 15 mph for several hours.

“Red Flag Warnings are usually only issued during the spring and fall fire weather seasons, February 16-April 30 and October 1-Decemebr 15,” the National Weather Service infographic says. “When warnings are issued, officials know to curtail planned burns and to be on the lookout for wildfires.”

So, now is not the time to be burning on private property or setting off any fireworks. But, always be sure to check with your local county and city burn bans to find out if burning is allowed at a given time before you set any fires.