Texas Republican voters will decide the GOP nominee on May 26.
DALLAS — There’s no turning back now.
The deadline to drop out of the May 26 primary runoff election has come and gone, so Republican voters in Texas will decide between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to be their nominee in the race for U.S. Senate.
And just like the gladiatorial combat in the movie Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, the grudge match between the two has been vicious and unrelenting, and it’s only just getting started.
GOP consultant and political advertising expert Vinny Minchillo says voters should expect the level of nastiness between the two to only get worse.
“We’ve seen unprecedented things. I mean, the week after the primary, the Cornyn campaign dropped a six-minute-long attack ad. Six minutes, which is really more for you guys (media) rather than the public,” Minchillo told us on Y’all-itics.
Voters have likely seen some of those ads by now.
And while there is no question they’re hitting below the belt, are they sticking? Will voters remember them by the time the runoff election rolls in on May 26?
Andrea Coker is the Chief Advocacy Officer for the North Texas Commission. She has an extensive background in political communication, from helping districts pass school bonds to serving as communications director for Republican Congresswoman Beth Van Duyne.
“I’ve never seen the very conservative Republican electorate care less about infidelity since President Trump got elected three wives behind him. So, I think we’ve seen a huge change in what voters are willing to accept from their politicians these days as long as they can stay on message about certain other conservative priorities,” Coker offered as an explanation as to why the attack ads in the GOP Senate race might not be landing.
Our Y’all-itics political experts agree that the one group of voters that will need to be monitored in the runoff election is college educated suburban mothers. Minchillo says they’ve soured on Paxton and what they decide to do will likely determine Cornyn’s future.
Both candidates are also waiting to hear from President Donald Trump, who said he would endorse one of them in the race with the expectation that the other candidate would drop out. It’s too late now to remove your name from the ballot, but any endorsement from Trump at this point would still likely swing the race.
“I think the more interesting conversation is that President Trump knows for the better for the ticket in November, he should endorse Cornyn but is seeing weakness with his own image in the grassroots of the Republican party. The war in Iran. I think some of his endorsements are not landing as well,” Coker explained. “He’s looking November in the face. He doesn’t know what he’s going to do when he’s a lame duck President. I think this is all swirling around and he’s seeing his influence lessen and he does not want to lose.”
The candidate that emerges on the GOP side will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the general election on Nov. 3. That race will be even more expensive than the huge pile of cash spent on the primary.
If the matchup is Paxton vs. Talarico, our experts expect it to become the most expensive race in history, possibly topping $200 million. And that’s because national Democrats would see an opportunity and begin pouring dollars into the race.
“I think it’s a margin-of-error race,” Minchillo explained, while also reiterating that he thinks if Cornyn becomes the nominee he more easily defeats Talarico.
Meantime, Coker said Talarico did not face a disciplined campaign with disciplined messaging in the Democratic primary and that will change against Republicans in the fall, regardless of opponent.
“James Talarico has not faced a machine yet. He will face the machine, not just a machine,” she explained.
The political talk and beer drinking continued long after, with our experts weighing in on everything from whether they believe the polls, to the GOP’s future with Latino voters, to just how different CPAC was this year and what that might mean for November. Listen to the full episode of Y’all-itics to learn more. Cheers!