The Spurs hold two first-round picks in Monday’s NBA Draft Lottery and have the eighth-best odds at snagging the No. 1 pick.
SAN ANTONIO — The San Antonio Spurs have landed the last two NBA Rookie of the Year award recipients after hitting the lottery on Victor Wembanyama in 2023 and Stephon Castle in 2024.
But what are the odds the Silver & Black can go for the three-peat? Let’s take a look at every scenario that could happen for the Spurs in the NBA Draft Lottery on Monday night.
The Spurs own two first-round picks in the upcoming draft. The first is their own pick, which currently is at the eighth overall spot, and the second one is the 14th overall spot they received in a trade with the Atlanta Hawks. That pick became a lottery selection when the Hawks lost to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament, thus missing the playoffs.
San Antonio has a 6.7% chance at moving up to the No. 1 pick in the draft. And between their two first-round picks, the Silver & Black have a 29.6% chance of at least one of their selections moving up into the top four.
During the course of the NCAA basketball season, Duke’s Cooper Flagg became the consensus projected No. 1 pick for pretty much any team that wins the lottery, including the Spurs.
Flagg is a 6’9″ forward who averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.4 blocks per game in his freshman season with the Blue Devils.
ESPN compared Flagg’s game to five current and former NBA players, with their “Ceiling Comparison” being former Spurs guard Kawhi Leonard.
The comparisons come from both ends of the court, but the size on the defensive side is what pops out most, with perimeter shooting on offense coming along.
If the Spurs stay put at the No. 8 spot (or slide back slightly due to another team moving up in the lottery), ESPN predicts their most-likely best option to still be available is Illinois guard Kasparas Jakucionis.
Even though San Antonio has bolstered its backcourt with the Castle selection last year and the trade for De’Aaron Fox, Jakucionis would add a much-needed perimeter shooter as he shot over 31% from behind the arc and averaged 15 points per game on 44% shooting.
Jakucionis’ willingness to play both guard positions would fare well as a role spot on a Spurs team that has solid starting options at those positions.
By the way, there’s one more scenario we didn’t mention. It is possible for BOTH of the Spurs’ picks move up into the top four in the lottery. What are the odds of that? Way less than 1%.
Where will the Spurs land in the NBA Draft Lottery? And will they draft the eventual Rookie of the Year for a third season in a row? Find out Monday, May 12, at 6 p.m. on ESPN.