Goldman Sachs set its predictions ahead of the tournament start after analyzing thousands of matches dating back to 1978.
WASHINGTON — The World Cup is almost here.
Argentina is vying for a back-to-back win of one of soccer’s most sought after titles, a feat that hasn’t been achieved sine Brazil in 1962.
A record 1,248 players will represent 48 nations on the World Cup stage, the first time the tournament has been expanded to include that many teams. The rosters reflect the wide range of ages, with more than 25 years separating the oldest and youngest player.
But who will win? Goldman Sachs set its predictions ahead of the tournament start.
Last week, the investment firm released it odds and path to victory for the World Cup. The firm said it relied on historical performance data for each team, relying on the Elo rating system, which was originally devised to rank chess players. It takes into consideration scoring talent, team momentum as well as external factors such a geographical location.
The report was led by chief economist and head of Global Investment Research Jan Hatzius. It analyzed nearly 20,000 matches since 1978.
Goldman Sachs said its prediction model gives Spain a 26% probability of winning the trophy. Doing so would end a more than 15-year drought for the European nation, who last raised the trophy in South Africa in 2010.
Spain is bringing in some strong star power. Lamine Yamal, 18, is expected to lead the Spain squad that will try to win its second world title.
“We are all excited to get started and try to do well at the tournament,” Spain’s coach Luis De la Fuente said ahead of the World Cup opener on June 15.
Yamal is making his World Cup debut, though there were concerns about his participation following a hamstring injury in April.
France follows with a 19%, Argentina with a 14%, Brazil at an 8% and England at a 5%.
The firm said Spain is projected to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by “scoring talent and good momentum” entering the tournament. Argentina, on the other hand, has its chances dinged by a “winners slump” or often known among fans as the “World Cup curse,” Reigning champions statistically underperform in the following World Cup, sometimes failing to make it past the group stages as Germany, Spain and Italy did following their wins.
It’s not just Goldman Sachs backing the Spanish team, as the BetMGM Sportsbook puts Spain as a World Cup favorite, followed closely by France, England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.
Goldman Sachs has tried to predict winners in previous tournaments, though hasn’t quite sticked it.
“Our projection are not far from bookmakers’ odds — except for a lower winning probability for England— and our model would have performed quite well at previous World Cups (for example, when measured with the goal difference). That said, the model’s statistical power remains limited — not a surprise given football’s inherent unpredictability,” the report said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.